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<div class="msgheader">QUOTE:</div><div class="msgborder"><b>以下是引用<i>烟雨-江南</i>在2007-3-22 9:29:00的发言:</b><br/><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">几点启示</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">:<p></p></font></span></p><p></p><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">一</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman"> \ </font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">引起</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">2.27</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">股市狂泻的子弹是</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">:</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">日本低息贷款而流入中国股市资金逃离</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">.<p></p></font></span></p><p></p><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">二</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman"> \ </font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">在溢价销售的中国股市里</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">去年下半年的股市收益,激发了百姓的投资热情</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">,</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">中国人取出存款投向股市</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">,</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">加上这种国际热钱</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">,</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">已客观上引起了中国股市的泡沫</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">.</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">国际热钱一逃离</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">,</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">引起了这</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">2.27</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">事件</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">.</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">并引发了世界范围的股市下挫</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">.<p></p></font></span></p><p></p><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">三</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman"> \, </font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">场监管理远没有到位</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">, </font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">国际资本市场弱肉强食的本质</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">,</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">决定了中小投资者用大刀长矛与主力资金的坚船利炮对阵</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">.<p></p></font></span></p><p></p><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">四</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman"> \ </font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">国际对冲基金已热爱上中国这个金融市场</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">,</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">这也是”接鬼”的必然结果</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">.<p></p></font></span></p><p></p><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">五</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman"> \ </font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">日本</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">.</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">香港这样发达金融市场</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">,</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">可以出现崩盘事件</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">,</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">说明金融不是政府行政能控制的东东</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">,</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">政府政策救不了股民</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">,</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">政府只能引导股民理性而减少损失</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">.</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">但灾难发生时</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">,</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">没有一个人愿意最后一个跑出门去</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">.</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">相信政府会管好</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">,</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">是幼稚的愿望</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">.<p></p></font></span></p><p></p><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">六</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman"> \ </font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">目前中国股指</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">,</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">在一个相对”稳定”价位上</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">.(</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">但高溢价发行的本质没有变</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">),</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">这种稳</span><font face="Times New Roman"><br/> </font><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">定只是多空心理上的</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">,</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">走势上的相对稳定</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">.</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">要到</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">5000</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">点的期望是盲目的</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">.<p></p></font></span></p><p></p><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">七</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman"> \ </font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">中国经济如果真存在不确定性</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">,</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">当我们一般人并不感觉到时</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">,</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">国际妙家会先察觉</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">,</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">他们的行动</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">,</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">对我们说来往往是出其不意的</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">,</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">而却是灾难性的</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">.</font></span></p></div><p></p>文章很好,这几点启示就更妙了 |
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