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最近在考虑在杭州买个六七十平米的房子出租,所以做了个小小的 Excel 模型。有考虑买房投资的朋友可以参考一下。所有的重要假设都是可以设定的。
我把假设和结果贴在这里。其实最重要的 Assumptions 是房价增长率和投资回报率,我设了 5% 和 8%。如果用这两个数字,买个房子出租还是划算的。如果你的假设不一样,最后的表上你可以查到用不同的假设得到的结果。
最后申明一下,我没说现在买房,我估计半年一年以后,会是买房的时机。
没法贴 Excel 文件,我把文件名改成 chm 了,下载后改回 .xls 就可以用了。有问题尽管问,对这个小 Model 有建议和批评的更是欢迎。
Assumption (假设) | | | | Appreciation (房价增长率) | 5.0% | Discount rate (投资回报率/折扣率) | 8% | Current Monhtly Rent (当前月房租收入) | 2,000 | House price (房价) | 700,000 | Downpay (首付比例) | 30% | Buy transaction fee (买房费用) | 2% | Interest rate (利息) | 5% | Loan length (房贷年数) |
25 | Inflation rate (通胀率) | 3% | Sell transaction fee (卖房费用) | 1% |
Cash Flow (现金流) | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | Principle (房贷余额) |
490,000 |
480,126 |
469,759 |
458,873 |
447,442 |
435,441 |
422,839 |
409,607 |
395,713 |
381,125 | | Interest (利息) |
(24,500) |
(24,006) |
(23,488) |
(22,944) |
(22,372) |
(21,772) |
(21,142) |
(20,480) |
(19,786) |
(19,056) | | Payment (银行付款) |
(34,374) |
(34,374) |
(34,374) |
(34,374) |
(34,374) |
(34,374) |
(34,374) |
(34,374) |
(34,374) |
(34,374) | | Downpay
(首付) |
(210,000) | | | | | | | | | | | Transaction fee (交易费用) |
(14,000) | | | | | | | | | | | Rental Income (租金收入) |
24,000 |
24,720 |
25,462 |
26,225 |
27,012 |
27,823 |
28,657 |
29,517 |
30,402 |
31,315 | | Sale income (卖房收入) | | | | | | | | | | |
747,699 | Net CF (净现金流) |
(234,374) |
(9,654) |
(8,912) |
(8,148) |
(7,362) |
(6,551) |
(5,717) |
(4,857) |
(3,971) |
(3,059) |
747,699 | Discount rate (投资回报率/折扣率) |
1.00 |
0.93 |
0.86 |
0.79 |
0.74 |
0.68 |
0.63 |
0.58 |
0.54 |
0.50 |
0.46 | Discounted CF (折扣现金) |
(234,374) |
(8,939) |
(7,641) |
(6,468) |
(5,411) |
(4,459) |
(3,602) |
(2,834) |
(2,146) |
(1,530) |
346,329 | PV (Present Value, 现值) |
68,925 | | | | | | | | | | |
PV Table by Appreciation & Discount Rate(现值和房价增长率/投资回报率假设的关系) | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Appreciation (房价增长率) | | | | | | | | |
68,925 | 2% | 3% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 7% | 8% | 9% | 10% | Discount rate (投资回报率/折扣率) | 3% |
58,978 |
123,395 |
193,693 |
270,346 |
353,858 |
444,770 |
543,659 |
651,142 |
767,876 | | 4% |
29,139 |
87,624 |
151,448 |
221,041 |
296,862 |
379,401 |
469,183 |
566,767 |
672,750 | | 5% |
2,376 |
55,523 |
113,522 |
176,764 |
245,666 |
320,673 |
402,262 |
490,940 |
587,251 | | 6% |
(21,651) |
26,690 |
79,444 |
136,967 |
199,638 |
267,861 |
342,072 |
422,731 |
510,332 | | 7% |
(43,238) |
770 |
48,796 |
101,164 |
158,217 |
220,327 |
287,886 |
361,316 |
441,066 | | 8% |
(62,650) |
(22,551) |
21,209 |
68,925 |
120,911 |
177,503 |
239,061 |
305,969 |
378,635 | | 9% |
(80,119) |
(43,550) |
(3,643) |
39,872 |
87,280 |
138,890 |
195,028 |
256,044 |
322,312 | | 10% |
(95,851) |
(62,474) |
(26,049) |
13,667 |
56,938 |
104,043 |
155,282 |
210,973 |
271,457 |
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